Grant McDermott bio photo

Grant McDermott

Economics.
Environment.
Data science.

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Some exciting news for yours truly is that I'll be writing a series of articles for the excellent energy and climate website, The Energy Collective, as part of their Future Energy Fellows initiative.

I will be focusing on particular sub-topic that has aroused a lot of interest recently; namely, the economic and environmental impacts of natural gas.

My first post concerns the role that the North American shale boom has played in bringing U.S. carbon emissions to a twenty-year low, and the question of whether these climate gains are undermined by increased coal exports to Europe. (Short answer: not really.) The article expands on some earlier musings that I have presented here at the Corral and at the Recon Hub. Here's the opening gambit, which I use to set up the problem:
U.S. Shale Gas Meets European Climate Policy

Economists are suckers for a good paradox. Few things are more intellectually appealing to the practicing economist than a result which runs counter to his or her immediate intuition. Indeed, some of the most enduring ideas in history of economic thought have surprising implications at the heart of their allure; from the paradox of thrift to Ricardo's law of comparative advantage. For their part, the specialized fields of energy and environmental economics are not immune to the charms of counter-intuitive theories either. This includes textbook favourites like the green paradox and the rebound effect.

Beyond the intellectual appeal, it is clearly sensible to be mindful of such factors when designing policy. However, our inherent affinity for paradoxes is also problematic in that it can cause people to overstate their role in real world situations. To illustrate using the aforementioned rebound effect, Nature recently published a comprehensive literature survey on the subject by Gillingham et al. (2013). The authors show that the rebound effect’s significance is much overplayed, being typically only in the region of 10% (with an upper bound of about 30%). Hardly a compelling objection to improved efficiency standards then.[...]

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